Tesla Stock Price Forecast & Long-term Prediction

Price for 11/04/2024 - 248.98 USD 

According to Bloomberg reports, over the 2-week period of 2024, Tesla's capitalisation fell by $94bn. The main reason was the outperformance of competitors. An additional factor - manufacturing problems in Germany. Another decrease in prices for some models also played its role.

The quotations forecast for the nearest month is bearish. Based on BeatMarket analysts' opinion, the stock may fall to $180 by mid-February. The most optimistic predictions assume that quotations will go sideways. Their authors indicate a price of $190.

There was a steady uptrend on the Tesla chart in 2023. The quotations reached the level of $260 in the last days of December. At this point, the bulls gave up their positions. The value of the stock began to decline. In mid-February, there was an attempt to turn the bearish trend into a bullish one. However, the fundamentals proved stronger. 

As of mid-March 2024, the key technical analysis tools give identical recommendations. On time frames from M1 to MN1 the consensus forecast is "actively sell".

The following should be taken into consideration:

• on time frame 1D the quotes are below the moving averages; 

• the RSI indicator, which is based on 14 candlesticks, has almost entered the oversold zone;

• the M30 timeframe shows a Bullish doji Star bullish candlestick pattern with medium reliability. 

All this indicates the probability of the trend changing. Traders, who are used to trading against the market, may consider it to be positive signals.

But one should mind the negative fundamental factors. They may not allow quotations to turn around in the nearest future.

According to Tradingview, Tesla has been steadily increasing its revenue since 2016. But only at the end of 2020, the company managed to demonstrate its net profit. In subsequent years, this indicator has been steadily growing. For more financial data, please refer to the table below. 

The investing.com platform reports that Tesla's current P/E multiple is almost 2 times the industry average. But it should be taken into account that this company is significantly different from other carmakers. 

ROI is considered one of the most attractive of all Tesla's multiples. Its value for the last 12 months exceeds the average for 5 years. The difference is more than 2 times. Other key parameters are given below. 

Tesla quotes are quite volatile. The financial situation of the company is influenced by many factors. The company works with high-tech products. Therefore, it is quite difficult to make forecasts on its value. 

Experts disagree even on which way the quotes will go. Most Wall Street analysts have positive feelings. The most famous bulls are Ronald Baron and Cathie Wood. They are confident that Tesla will be able to consolidate above $1000 in the next 5 years. The most optimistic forecasts suggest that the stock will rise above $2500.

But there is also a bearish scenario. Its authors promise a short-term growth of quotations in the coming years. It will be followed by a return to the levels below $200 per stock in 2028. 

Bullish factors that will support the price in the next 5 years:

• expanding the model range through the budget segment;

• strengthening of the energy production and storage business;

• opportunities to introduce new products;

• growth in demand for the company's products due to popularization of green energy.

The weakness remains the rather high cost of production. The business clearly does not work for the broad market. There are analysts who believe that Chinese companies will be able to bypass Tesla. 

But this opinion is not shared by everyone. Among those who disagree are Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley. In 2023, he expressed confidence that Tesla will maintain its leadership in the coming years.

Some experts believe that the currently quoted price level is overstated. They believe this is due to the public's interest in Ilon Musk's personality. If he leaves or loses popularity, the value of the company will decrease. 

BeatMarket specialists do not consider the current value to be fundamentally unreasonable. We believe that Tesla may reach new heights in the next 5 years. At the same time, we do not support the $2500 and above scenario. Our forecast for today is a moderate growth of quotations.

The company had a bad start to 2024. External factors influenced its quotations. First of all, these are logistics issues due to the events in the Red Sea. Another negative news is falling market share. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Tesla was second to BYD in terms of the number of electric cars sold. 

Leading stock analysts have no consensus on Tesla's prospects. According to the data provided by cnn.com, the expected price of TSLA by the end of 2024:

• minimum, $68;

• medium, $224.5;

• maximum, $345.

The Street calls the average target price for TSLA at $220.98. And JPMorgan believes that the quotes will fall below $140. The reason for the negative prediction is the expectation of further decline in Tesla's profit. 

According to investing.com, Analysts 12-Month Price Target is $208.81.

The forecast from BeatMarket analysts is presented in the table below.

Forecasts for 2025 are even more variable. Tesla's final stock price will depend heavily on its 2024-2025 financial results. The factor of Ilon Musk's personality will retain its influence on the quotations. The macroeconomic situation in the world will be no less important for the price formation. 

Here is a brief overview of Tesla stock price forecasts by the end of 2025:

• $80 - by Craig Irwin at Roth Capital; 

• $349-$472.5 - by Gov Capital Services;

• $400 - by Adam Jonas at Morgan StanleyMS;

• $500 - by Sneha Nahata at Barchart.

BeatMarket experts are optimistic about the company's future. We believe that by the end of 2025 the quotes will exceed the prices of the beginning of 2024. A more detailed forecast is available below.

The outlook for Tesla stock is moderately optimistic for a relatively long period. Ark Invest is known for its bullish views on the company's future. In fact, even this investment company has updated its predictions. Its experts previously came up with a price expectation of $2900-$5800 per stock. In 2023, the target values were lowered almost 2 times. 

Even more moderate forecast is given by experts of Gov Capital service. Their average forecast price at the end of 2026 is $721.5.

Relative pessimism is demonstrated by analysts of longforecast.com platform. According to their data, the price of TSLA in December 2026 will range from $250 to $320.

The reason for such discrepancies is the varying opinions that experts have on the pace of electric vehicle adoption. Also, some analysts are betting on Chinese competitors. They believe that BYD will soon surpass Tesla in key parameters. 

Cathie Wood believes that by 2027 Tesla quotes will increase significantly. The bearish forecast is $1400, bullish - $2500.

But most experts are much less optimistic:

1. Gov Capital service expects quotations within the range of $930-$1258 by the end of December 2027.

2. Longforecast.com experts give a bearish prediction. In their opinion, TSLA stock price will fall to $140-$179.

3. BeatMarket analysts believe that the company will be able to increase its financial performance. Therefore, its stock price will grow. But we do not expect the company to consolidate above the level of $1200.

The Value Investing platform forecasts Tesla's revenue to grow up to $208bn by 2027. They expect EPS to increase to $7 compared to $4 in 2023. With these expectations being met, the company's stock price will also rise.

The platform stockanalysis.com presented forecasts on Tesla's financial performance. According to them, the company's EPS will be in the range of $6.8-$9.86 in 2028. This allows us to expect the stock to grow in value. 

Here is a brief overview of TSLA stock price forecasts for 2028:

• most analysts' predictions are within the range of $1200 to $2000 per stock;

• negative authors expect the levels of $150-$175 per stock;

• optimists believe it is possible to overcome the $2500 mark.

BeatMarket experts consider the moderate valuation reasonable. We are neither inclined to support Cathie Wood's optimism, nor do we believe in the price growth tenfold. In our opinion, there are reasons to wait for a consolidation above the $1500 per share level. But the $2000 threshold may become a strong resistance.