Aluminum is a base metal originally considered to be more valuable than gold. Nowadays, the entire demand for it is only for industrial use. The main sectors are construction, household goods manufacturing, chemical and oil refining industries. Along with nickel and copper, it is used in green energy. Therefore, it is considered one of the key future metals.
Aluminum price forecasts depend on many factors. In the short term, they are influenced by economic expectations and the level of interest rates. In the long term, they are determined by promises of supply shortages against the backdrop of growing demand.
Aluminum ranks first among metals in terms of prevalence. But experts believe the market will soon face a shortage of aluminum. This is due to the fact that production will not keep up with the growing demand. The latter is largely provided by "green" initiatives. These include an increase in the production of electric vehicles, etc. The demand for aluminum would increase twice as slowly without these sectors.
But Goldman Sachs' aluminium price forecast 2023 did not come true. The bank expected levels above $3000 per tonne by the mid-year. But the growth of quotations was hampered by increased output and lower than expected demand.
The May predictions of the World Bank about further price decline did not come true either. Therefore, there are claims that the aluminum market has found its equilibrium. Some experts believe that it will remain in this equilibrium in the coming years.
A summary of the aluminum price prediction is given below:
Quotes rise when the market expects supply disruptions or inventory reductions. The metric ton price falls when there is weak demand. Increased aluminum production is also a bearish factor.
The current LME aluminum price forecast is bullish. This is due to expectations of monetary policy easing. Traders no longer believe in the possibility of a prolonged recession. The market is in a positive mood. Indicators of technical analysis give signals to buy.
The most popular technical analysis tools are proper for predicting aluminum price trends. These include oscillators (RSI, MACD), moving averages, etc. Below is given an interactive widget. It allows you to get a forecast for different timeframes. Buy/Sell recommendation is given based on the most popular indicators.
At the end of December 2023, the aluminum futures price reached a local high. Following that, profit taking began. In the first half of January, the chart shows a clearly pronounced bearish trend. Consensus forecast of key indicators "actively selling" is observed on all senior timeframes.
But the arguments in favour of the possible growth of quotations:
BeatMarket experts believe that the aluminum market will remain volatile in the next month. Most likely, the quotes will move in the sidewall. Short-term price rises are possible. But a pronounced bullish trend is unlikely.
The table below contains the prices of the main metals. It also reflects the dynamics of quotations for a day, month, year. The tool allows you to see the performance of aluminum with iron, nickel, etc. compared to each other.
Price | Day | Month | Year | Date | ||
Gold | 2645.66 USD | +32.84 | +1.26% | +5.05% | +42.14% | 11.10.2024 |
Silver | 31.33 USD | +0.80 | +2.61% | +10.29% | +43.50% | 11.10.2024 |
Palladium | 1085.64 USD | +30.32 | +2.87% | +12.21% | -7.34% | 11.10.2024 |
Platinum | 982.97 USD | +16.85 | +1.74% | +4.28% | +11.04% | 11.10.2024 |
Copper | 4.44 USD | +0.012 | +0.26% | +8.77% | +21.85% | 11.10.2024 |
Aluminum | 2601.12 USD | +44.27 | +1.73% | +11.11% | +17.24% | 11.10.2024 |
Zinc | 3072.48 USD | +53.84 | +1.78% | +14.29% | +24.77% | 11.10.2024 |
Nickel | 17150 USD | -725.00 | -4.06% | +8.75% | -7.85% | 10.10.2024 |
Ongoing aluminum price forecasts are negative. Experts are of the opinion that in the next 5 years the quotations will face pressure. Bearish factors will prevail over bullish ones. This will cause the boom in the market to come to an end.
Following the 2022 surge, the metal's value has declined markedly. In the next 5 years, this trend will continue. Analysts predict a return to the average historical value. In some periods, more significant falling quotes are possible.
The excitement that arose in 2022 turned out to be unjustified. Now the market will be cautious about the prospects of a deficit of this metal. There are no fundamental factors that would bring quotations back to historical highs.
Experts do not recommend aluminum-related assets for long-term investments. Experienced traders can profit from playing on the downside. But there will definitely be local corrections in a bear market.
Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
01.12.2024 | 1875.708 USD | 1895.116 USD | -715.71 USD (-37.96%) |
01.12.2025 | 1574.270 USD | 1593.256 USD | -301.65 USD (-19.05%) |
01.12.2026 | 1273.083 USD | 1292.354 USD | -301.04 USD (-23.47%) |
01.12.2027 | 972.168 USD | 996.791 USD | -298.24 USD (-30.29%) |
01.12.2028 | 671.540 USD | 694.278 USD | -301.57 USD (-44.16%) |
01.02.2029 | 706.854 USD | 723.287 USD | +32.16 USD (4.5%) |
Aluminum price forecast 2024 is negative. Technical analysis indicators point to a downward exit of quotations from the sidewall. Fundamental factors are also on the side of bears. The market is promised some level of supply surplus. The cost per tonne will decrease further relative to the record values of 2022.
Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
01.12.2024 | 1875.708 USD | 1895.116 USD | -715.71 USD (-37.96%) |
The aluminum price forecast 2025 is bearish. Analysts predict a negative scenario for most metals for the period. A number of experts consider current demand growth expectations to be overly optimistic. They are confident that the market will not develop at such a pace. This will result in significant corrections.
Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
01.01.2025 | 1895.801 USD | 1932.221 USD | -687.11 USD (-35.9%) |
01.02.2025 | 1910.700 USD | 1941.791 USD | +12.23 USD (0.64%) |
01.03.2025 | 1879.551 USD | 1941.456 USD | -15.74 USD (-0.82%) |
01.04.2025 | 1820.252 USD | 1902.572 USD | -49.09 USD (-2.64%) |
01.05.2025 | 1772.167 USD | 1815.121 USD | -67.77 USD (-3.78%) |
01.06.2025 | 1667.863 USD | 1759.942 USD | -79.74 USD (-4.65%) |
01.07.2025 | 1655.998 USD | 1669.905 USD | -50.95 USD (-3.06%) |
01.08.2025 | 1659.297 USD | 1672.823 USD | +3.11 USD (0.19%) |
01.09.2025 | 1659.569 USD | 1674.540 USD | +0.99 USD (0.06%) |
01.10.2025 | 1611.842 USD | 1678.694 USD | -21.79 USD (-1.32%) |
01.11.2025 | 1593.836 USD | 1605.382 USD | -45.66 USD (-2.85%) |
01.12.2025 | 1574.270 USD | 1593.256 USD | -15.85 USD (-1%) |
Experts believe that aluminum quotations will not show any significant movement in 2026. The market for this metal is predicted to stagnate and prices will go into a sidewall. Minor fluctuations in the cost of a tonne will not allow to earn a significant profit on this asset. It is unlikely the graph line will be able to break through the corridor of 5-10% of the average.
Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
01.01.2026 | 1594.894 USD | 1630.910 USD | -988.22 USD (-61.27%) |
01.02.2026 | 1610.566 USD | 1639.147 USD | +11.95 USD (0.74%) |
01.03.2026 | 1577.637 USD | 1642.148 USD | -14.96 USD (-0.93%) |
01.04.2026 | 1521.140 USD | 1601.053 USD | -48.8 USD (-3.13%) |
01.05.2026 | 1473.454 USD | 1521.036 USD | -63.85 USD (-4.26%) |
01.06.2026 | 1369.379 USD | 1462.698 USD | -81.21 USD (-5.73%) |
01.07.2026 | 1355.058 USD | 1371.285 USD | -52.87 USD (-3.88%) |
01.08.2026 | 1358.356 USD | 1371.200 USD | +1.61 USD (0.12%) |
01.09.2026 | 1358.445 USD | 1373.786 USD | +1.34 USD (0.1%) |
01.10.2026 | 1314.706 USD | 1378.618 USD | -19.45 USD (-1.44%) |
01.11.2026 | 1286.605 USD | 1305.004 USD | -50.86 USD (-3.92%) |
01.12.2026 | 1273.083 USD | 1292.354 USD | -13.09 USD (-1.02%) |
The long-term LME aluminum price forecast is bearish. Analysts say the metal market is expected to decline in 2027. Experts believe that such a scenario is realized when economic uncertainty increases. Many believe that green energy transition programmes will face a number of problems. As a result, aluminum ∂demand will not grow as fast as currently planned.
Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
01.01.2027 | 1295.634 USD | 1329.464 USD | -1288.57 USD (-98.17%) |
01.02.2027 | 1309.557 USD | 1336.142 USD | +10.3 USD (0.78%) |
01.03.2027 | 1276.294 USD | 1342.162 USD | -13.62 USD (-1.04%) |
01.04.2027 | 1227.378 USD | 1298.947 USD | -46.07 USD (-3.65%) |
01.05.2027 | 1165.024 USD | 1202.995 USD | -79.15 USD (-6.69%) |
01.06.2027 | 1068.984 USD | 1164.680 USD | -67.18 USD (-6.02%) |
01.07.2027 | 1054.330 USD | 1071.396 USD | -53.97 USD (-5.08%) |
01.08.2027 | 1057.579 USD | 1069.522 USD | +0.69 USD (0.06%) |
01.09.2027 | 1057.579 USD | 1072.836 USD | +1.66 USD (0.16%) |
01.10.2027 | 1017.963 USD | 1078.041 USD | -17.21 USD (-1.64%) |
01.11.2027 | 987.697 USD | 1004.904 USD | -51.7 USD (-5.19%) |
01.12.2027 | 972.168 USD | 996.791 USD | -11.82 USD (-1.2%) |
The aluminum forecast for 2028 is neutral. Experts, who were optimistic back in early 2023, are reducing the target prices. Aluminum is a natural resource. Among them, for example, Goldman Sachs. In the spring of 2023, the bank predicted that the cost of a ton will cross the border of $5,000 already in 2025.
The reasons for this are negative fundamental factors:
Consensus forecast of the most authoritative analysts - growth of quotations within 30% relative to the early 2024 levels.
Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
01.01.2028 | 993.019 USD | 1029.297 USD | -1589.96 USD (-157.24%) |
01.02.2028 | 1007.992 USD | 1033.845 USD | +9.76 USD (0.96%) |
01.03.2028 | 975.591 USD | 1041.506 USD | -12.37 USD (-1.23%) |
01.04.2028 | 934.026 USD | 998.244 USD | -42.41 USD (-4.39%) |
01.05.2028 | 864.221 USD | 908.708 USD | -79.67 USD (-8.99%) |
01.06.2028 | 768.891 USD | 864.428 USD | -69.81 USD (-8.55%) |
01.07.2028 | 753.826 USD | 768.955 USD | -55.27 USD (-7.26%) |
01.08.2028 | 756.956 USD | 769.060 USD | +1.62 USD (0.21%) |
01.09.2028 | 756.956 USD | 771.699 USD | +1.32 USD (0.17%) |
01.10.2028 | 705.936 USD | 777.008 USD | -22.86 USD (-3.08%) |
01.11.2028 | 686.296 USD | 705.683 USD | -45.48 USD (-6.53%) |
01.12.2028 | 671.540 USD | 694.278 USD | -13.08 USD (-1.92%) |
In the longer term, the aluminum products price outlook is bullish. This also applies to the stocks of its manufacturers, as well as those of raw material miners. There are several reasons for this prediction:
The industry's annual demand for aluminum in 2050 will reach about 170 million tonnes. However, experts predict an increase in the speed of product processing. This will reduce the need for raw materials and primary metal.
Therefore, the rate of price growth is an important issue. In 1996, a tonne of aluminum cost about $1500. At the end of 2023 - about $2250. Such dynamics cannot be considered competitive and proper for investors. For example, the SP500 broad market index outperforms it many times over.
For the next 27 years, up to 2050, experts predict a more optimistic scenario. In their opinion, the aluminum market will show significant growth rates. They name levels of x5 - x10 relative to the current levels.
Long-term expectations related to grey gold prices are positive. Analysts believe the quotations will go up in the next 10 years. The market is promised an increase in turnover by almost 2 times. However, aluminum is expected to remain a volatile asset. Against the background of the global bullish trend, experts predict frequent corrections.
Optimistic analysts call the levels of $15 thousand per tonne achievable. But the actual price depends on the supply and demand balance. These figures will become a reality when the forecasts on metal deficit come true. If the scenario of equilibrium in the market is realized, the quotations may not renew the historical maximum.
The International Aluminium Institute expects demand to grow. By 2030, the demand for this metal will increase by 40%. The global industry will need about 33.3 million tonnes of primary aluminum per year. Research manager at Straits Research P. Ltd: "The market will reach a volume of $255bn. The average CAGR will reach 6.1%".
The aluminum price forecast 2030 is bullish. Analysts name widely differing figures. But they all expect the cost per tonne to be higher than the current price.
In addition to the supply and demand balance, the cost per tonne of aluminum may be affected by:
According to some experts, the price per tonne would be in the five digits by 2030. But 2023 proved that the forecasts on the deficit level failed to meet the expectations. It is highly probable that producers will be able to cope with market demands in the future.
At the moment, experts are in a positive mood. The bullish forecasts are based on predictions of rapid growth in demand. The aluminum market is promised active development and price growth. Owners of stocks of producers of this metal will also benefit.
But on long time horizons unpredictable factors may appear, for example:
Any of these factors will affect the final cost in 2040. Only 2 things seem indisputable. First, quotations will certainly rise. Aluminum has intrinsic value, which means it will rise in price as a result of inflation. Second, the asset will remain volatile. It is likely that the market will again see price fluctuations similar to those observed in 2022.
The current aluminum price forecast 2050 is bullish. It will remain bullish as long as the metal remains in demand in key industries.
CRU Group experts made an optimistic forecast. They believe that primary aluminum demand will reach 107.8 million tonnes in 2050.
Bearish factors on the aluminum market may include:
Yet the probability and degree of influence of these factors are difficult to predict. Experts believe that the cost of a tonne may be as high as $20 thousand. But this requires a scenario of total deficit of basic metals.
Moderate analysts point to a lower price threshold. The average forecast is x2 - x3 from current levels.
Aluminum is an industrial metal that is not considered an investment asset. It also has no jewelry demand today. It is impossible to invest in it physically, as in gold or platinum. Aluminum ingots are used to produce rolled steel and foil. They are never stored in anticipation of an increase in value.
There are 3 ways to profit from the growth of exchange prices for aluminum:
Aluminum can be traded off-exchange by trading CFDs on Forex.
Buying aluminum assets is a bet on economic growth and development of green energy. They can also be considered a hedge against a weakening dollar.
In summer, the price of a tonne of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange reached an all-time high. Quotes rose above the $3000 mark. But against the backdrop of the global crisis, the value of this asset collapsed. Already next year, the average price was around $1600.
The boom in the metals market turned out to be a bullish factor for aluminum. Nevertheless, the quotations failed to renew the historical maximum. The price per tonne barely exceeded $2700.
The price surge was caused by the influence of 2 bullish factors at once. The first is the outbreak of coronavirus in China. The second is sanctions against Russia. This led to concerns about a significant deficit. In the first quarter, the metal's value hit a peak. In March, it exceeded $3700 per tonne. This became a new historical maximum.
Aluminum prices are strongly dependent on the demand level. When global stocks increase, the price will decrease. There is also a seasonal dependence. At certain times, the industry's need for this metal is higher. Prices in such months also traditionally rise.
An increase in price is also possible if there is a risk of a shortage. When there are reasons to expect a decline in production, quotations also go up. For example, in 2022 there will be a decline in production and a historical maximum of quotations.
Like other commodities, aluminum rises in price during periods of economic growth. When the market expects a recession and production cuts, metal prices fall. This factor is often more important than supply and demand.
The situation in the main producing countries also affects quotations. The key market participant is China. Then come India, Russia and Canada.
The strong dollar and high Fed Funds rate put pressure on the metals market. They also negatively affect aluminum quotations. Monetary policy easing is a bullish factor. The weakening of the dollar also contributes to price growth.
Smelting aluminum requires raw materials. Its cost determines the final price. Associated costs also have an impact. For example, the energy required for production.
Short-term aluminum price outlook is negative. The market is under the influence of bears. Traders do not consider the current moment to be a good time to build up positions in the metal. They prefer more reliable assets. Indicators of technical analysis point to a negative scenario.
The aluminum price forecast 2024 is bearish. Analysts predict that quotations will update the local minimum in 6-12 months. This is due to the increasing supplies of the metal. The risks of its deficit can be temporarily considered unrealised.
In the long term, experts call aluminum an unpromising asset. Fears of a serious deficit in 2022 are refuted. Under the condition of supply and demand equilibrium, the metal looks overvalued. The most likely scenario is a decline in quotations or a sideways exit.
Experts believe that aluminum quotations will increase in 2024. But the difference from 2023 will be insignificant. The 2022 maximums are unlikely to be repeated in the near future. This is largely due to the growth of metal output in China. Demand is not increasing as fast as expected in 2022.
This situation is possible to happen with several factors coming together. For this to happen, metal production volumes must increase. At the same time, it is necessary to maintain high interest rates. The latter slows down industrial growth and reduces demand. But in the perspective of several years, experts predict a bull market for aluminum. The main reason is its high demand.
Yes, the demand for aluminum is growing. This is primarily due to the emergence of electric vehicles. "Grey gold is also used in the manufacture of charging devices for them. The development of solar generation is an important factor. Demand in other areas of industry is also increasing. This is due to "organic" reasons - population growth and prosperity.
Global demand for aluminum is projected to increase by 19% by 2030. The world demand for this metal will reach 80 million tonnes. In certain industries, the level of its demand will grow twofold. Other sources believe that 120 million tonnes will be used in the same period.
Precious metals include gold, silver, platinum and palladium. The first of them is considered the most promising. Experts predict a significant growth in its quotations. Gold is represented in many model portfolios. It is often recommended to beginners as a conservative investment. The high potential for value increase is due to the numerous spheres of application.
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