Most experts agree that the demand for zinc will grow. Statista platform reports that global consumption of this metal will reach 19.66 million tonnes by 2028.
Yet, analysts differ radically in their assessment of zinc's prospects. The expected cost per tonne by the end of the next five-year period varies between $2100-$4000.
The metal surplus in the market is the main bearish factor for the next few years. The macroeconomic situation is also unfavorable for the growth of quotations. Therefore, the cost per tonne is expected to decline in 2024-2025.
The market should emerge from the surplus phase at some point after the year of 2026. The main bullish factors:
- the demand for zinc in green energy;
- higher production costs as a result of inflation and innovations required to reduce emissions;
- lower interest rates relative to current levels.
If the zinc mining profitability decreases, its supply will also decrease. This will lead to growth of quotations. Due to these, BeatMarket analysts disagree with bearish views on the zinc market. In our opinion, the cost per tonne cannot fall below the current levels by 2028. Meanwhile, we support negative forecasts for the next 2 years.
BeatMarket experts have no faith in overly optimistic predictions either. We believe that the chances of quotation growth by 50% or more are extremely low. The cost per tonne is close to 2009 levels. There are practically no preconditions for its rapid increase in the current situation.
Only unpredictable factors can cause quotes to soar. First of all, geopolitical ones, as they did in 2022. But even when such events take place again, the market will quickly return to its equilibrium values.
Even with no significant news, zinc remains a volatile asset. It is highly probable that in 5 years quotations will differ from the current ones by 10%-15%. But within this timeframe, more significant fluctuations are possible.
Dean Belder from Investing News points out that 2024 will turn out to be a negative year for base metals. Zinc quotations are under pressure from the following factors:
- high interest rates;
- lower investment in property and capital projects;
- China's slow recovery from COVID.
All these factors are reducing demand against the backdrop of increased metal production. ILZSG states that zinc surplus will amount to 367 th. tonnes. However, many experts are still optimistic and do not predict a strong fall in quotations.
Brief review of target prices for 2024:
- $2230 - from Wallet Investor;
- $2500 - from BMI Research ( with the forecast raised from $2300);
- $2650 - from Capital Economics
BeatMarket experts stick to the moderate scenario. Our detailed forecast is presented in the table below.
Zinc demand will largely depend on the Chinese government's policies. The construction sector of the country is one of the main consumers. What measures to stimulate it will determine the price per tonne.
Most analysts predict the quotations to stay in a sideways trend for the whole year. The expected rate of movement is up to 5% per month. BMI Research and Wallet Investor are among the sources indicating the probability of stagnation.
Most zinc predictions for 2025 fall within the $1950-$2400 range. Higher forecasts can be found. For example, $2850 per tonne from Knoema analysts. BeatMarket experts tend to agree with the majority opinion. We do not expect growth in quotations relative to 2023.
In 2026, the maximum zinc market surplus will be observed. It will amount to more than 530 thousand tonnes. It is forecasted by the authors of Australian Resources And Investment. Such a surplus will inevitably put pressure on quotations.
Wallet Investor analysts expect the cost per tonne to fall in price to $1702-$1712 by the end of 2026. This is equivalent to falling by almost a third from current levels.
Still, there are more optimistic forecasts. The most optimistic one is $2,748 per tonne. It is higher than the current price. But given this result, zinc still cannot be called a promising asset.
BeatMarket experts do not share in this optimism. Our forecast is bearish. We believe that the zinc market in 2026 will not be able to perform at levels higher than the current ones.
The key factor contributing to rising zinc prices will be its high demand in the green energy sector. The more the sector develops, the greater will be the demand.
The statista.com service predicts an increase in production to 1.53 million tonnes by 2027. Hence, analysts' optimism about zinc is directly related to the belief in the abandoning of oil.
Here is a brief overview of experts' predictions for 2027:
- $1442 — from Wallet Investor;
- $2150 — from BMI Research;
- $2748 — from knoema.com.
As the experts believe, the market should emerge from the surplus phase by 2028. Moreover, the main increase in consumption will be in green energy. First of all, wind turbines.
The forecast cost per tonne of zinc in 2028 is as follows:
- over $4,000 - according to Statista's research department;
- about $2100 - according to Fitch's projections;
- within the $2500-$3000 range - according to BeatMarket analysts' expectations;
- The degree of experts' optimism depends on their belief in the green energy sector. Analysts also have different assessments regarding the rate of interest rate normalization and zinc production growth. Thus, there is a significant difference in forecasts.
