Zinc is an industrial metal widely used in construction. It is never used by investors for long-term capital storage. In terms of profit making, mining stocks and futures trading are of interest.
The key indicator of zinc price is the cost per tonne under the futures contract at the London Metal Exchange (LME).
At present, the zinc market is in the surplus phase. This is due to lower demand from China and European industry. Therefore, the cost per tonne is unlikely to increase in the coming years.
Experts predict an increase in the metal's price over the next few decades. Yet, it is predicted to be quite moderate compared to other commodities, such as gold. According to the International Zinc Association, the main factor driving quotations up will be an increase in demand.
A summary of the aluminum price prediction is given below:
Quotes rise when the market expects supply disruptions or inventory reductions. The metric ton price falls when there is weak demand. Increased aluminum production is also a bearish factor.
Today the zinc market is dominated by bulls. Quotes are in an ascending channel. This is due to favorable external factors. Technical analysis tools also give buy signals on the lower timeframes.
Traders receive a "buy" recommendation on the lowest timeframes. This assessment is given by both moving averages and the most popular indicators. Among the last ones are the Williams Percent Range, Relative Strength Index, and Stochastic Oscillator.
On medium and senior timeframes, technical analysis tools show sell signals. On the monthly table, such an assessment is given by the main indicators, including:
The prevailing trend is best determined on large timeframes. Smaller time frames help to find the optimal moment to enter a position. Their combination, according to many traders' views, increases the probability of success.
Given the above, moderate falling of quotations should be expected. A 5-7% drop in prices is possible. There is also a high chance that the sideways trend will go on and the cost per tonne will fluctuate in a narrow range. There are no signals for the emergence of a clearly defined bullish trend.
The table below gives the quotations of zinc and the most popular metals. It allows one to track the way quotations changed for a day, month and year. It will help to quickly compare zinc profitability with the main competing assets.
Price | Day | Month | Year | Date | ||
Gold | 2632.95 USD | -0.17 | -0.0063% | -2.28% | +29.53% | 08.12.2024 |
Silver | 30.97 USD | -0.00098 | -0.0032% | -2.37% | +29.93% | 08.12.2024 |
Palladium | 961.68 USD | +0.035 | +0.0036% | -5.60% | -1.57% | 08.12.2024 |
Platinum | 933.1 USD | +0.46 | +0.049% | -6.19% | +1.91% | 08.12.2024 |
Copper | 4.17 USD | 0.00 | 0.00% | -5.13% | +9.62% | 08.12.2024 |
Aluminum | 2607.06 USD | 0.00 | 0.00% | -3.43% | +21.34% | 08.12.2024 |
Zinc | 3067.09 USD | 0.00 | 0.00% | +0.57% | +27.64% | 08.12.2024 |
Nickel | 15775 USD | -25.00 | -0.16% | +0.41% | -1.41% | 07.12.2024 |
Most experts agree that the demand for zinc will grow. Statista platform reports that global consumption of this metal will reach 19.66 million tonnes by 2028.
Yet, analysts differ radically in their assessment of zinc's prospects. The expected cost per tonne by the end of the next five-year period varies between $2100-$4000.
The metal surplus in the market is the main bearish factor for the next few years. The macroeconomic situation is also unfavorable for the growth of quotations. Therefore, the cost per tonne is expected to decline in 2024-2025.
The market should emerge from the surplus phase at some point after the year of 2026. The main bullish factors:
If the zinc mining profitability decreases, its supply will also decrease. This will lead to growth of quotations. Due to these, BeatMarket analysts disagree with bearish views on the zinc market. In our opinion, the cost per tonne cannot fall below the current levels by 2028. Meanwhile, we support negative forecasts for the next 2 years.
BeatMarket experts have no faith in overly optimistic predictions either. We believe that the chances of quotation growth by 50% or more are extremely low. The cost per tonne is close to 2009 levels. There are practically no preconditions for its rapid increase in the current situation.
Only unpredictable factors can cause quotes to soar. First of all, geopolitical ones, as they did in 2022. But even when such events take place again, the market will quickly return to its equilibrium values.
Even with no significant news, zinc remains a volatile asset. It is highly probable that in 5 years quotations will differ from the current ones by 10%-15%. But within this timeframe, more significant fluctuations are possible.
Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
01.12.2025 | 1679.969 USD | 1693.387 USD | -1380.41 USD (-81.84%) |
01.12.2026 | 1391.017 USD | 1405.880 USD | -288.23 USD (-20.61%) |
01.12.2027 | 1102.085 USD | 1118.245 USD | -288.28 USD (-25.97%) |
01.12.2028 | 819.635 USD | 830.459 USD | -285.12 USD (-34.56%) |
01.02.2029 | 862.802 USD | 876.242 USD | +44.47 USD (5.11%) |
Zinc demand will largely depend on the Chinese government's policies. The construction sector of the country is one of the main consumers. What measures to stimulate it will determine the price per tonne.
Most analysts predict the quotations to stay in a sideways trend for the whole year. The expected rate of movement is up to 5% per month. BMI Research and Wallet Investor are among the sources indicating the probability of stagnation.
Most zinc predictions for 2025 fall within the $1950-$2400 range. Higher forecasts can be found. For example, $2850 per tonne from Knoema analysts. BeatMarket experts tend to agree with the majority opinion. We do not expect growth in quotations relative to 2023.
Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
01.02.2025 | 1999.741 USD | 2023.745 USD | -1055.35 USD (-52.46%) |
01.03.2025 | 1944.338 USD | 1995.329 USD | -41.91 USD (-2.13%) |
01.04.2025 | 1896.369 USD | 1980.400 USD | -31.45 USD (-1.62%) |
01.05.2025 | 1800.709 USD | 1887.754 USD | -94.15 USD (-5.11%) |
01.06.2025 | 1720.376 USD | 1802.092 USD | -83 USD (-4.71%) |
01.07.2025 | 1710.696 USD | 1748.305 USD | -31.73 USD (-1.83%) |
01.08.2025 | 1722.067 USD | 1745.981 USD | +4.52 USD (0.26%) |
01.09.2025 | 1664.049 USD | 1727.537 USD | -38.23 USD (-2.25%) |
01.10.2025 | 1667.781 USD | 1692.629 USD | -15.59 USD (-0.93%) |
01.11.2025 | 1671.093 USD | 1681.486 USD | -3.92 USD (-0.23%) |
01.12.2025 | 1679.969 USD | 1693.387 USD | +10.39 USD (0.62%) |
In 2026, the maximum zinc market surplus will be observed. It will amount to more than 530 thousand tonnes. It is forecasted by the authors of Australian Resources And Investment. Such a surplus will inevitably put pressure on quotations.
Wallet Investor analysts expect the cost per tonne to fall in price to $1702-$1712 by the end of 2026. This is equivalent to falling by almost a third from current levels.
Still, there are more optimistic forecasts. The most optimistic one is $2,748 per tonne. It is higher than the current price. But given this result, zinc still cannot be called a promising asset.
BeatMarket experts do not share in this optimism. Our forecast is bearish. We believe that the zinc market in 2026 will not be able to perform at levels higher than the current ones.
Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
01.01.2026 | 1686.693 USD | 1742.280 USD | -1352.61 USD (-78.89%) |
01.02.2026 | 1713.931 USD | 1737.304 USD | +11.13 USD (0.65%) |
01.03.2026 | 1657.941 USD | 1710.705 USD | -41.29 USD (-2.45%) |
01.04.2026 | 1606.873 USD | 1692.708 USD | -34.53 USD (-2.09%) |
01.05.2026 | 1513.813 USD | 1607.552 USD | -89.11 USD (-5.71%) |
01.06.2026 | 1431.555 USD | 1515.342 USD | -87.23 USD (-5.92%) |
01.07.2026 | 1423.011 USD | 1459.578 USD | -32.15 USD (-2.23%) |
01.08.2026 | 1434.530 USD | 1453.352 USD | +2.65 USD (0.18%) |
01.09.2026 | 1377.126 USD | 1438.400 USD | -36.18 USD (-2.57%) |
01.10.2026 | 1378.504 USD | 1404.388 USD | -16.32 USD (-1.17%) |
01.11.2026 | 1383.218 USD | 1394.328 USD | -2.67 USD (-0.19%) |
01.12.2026 | 1391.017 USD | 1405.880 USD | +9.68 USD (0.69%) |
The key factor contributing to rising zinc prices will be its high demand in the green energy sector. The more the sector develops, the greater will be the demand.
The statista.com service predicts an increase in production to 1.53 million tonnes by 2027. Hence, analysts' optimism about zinc is directly related to the belief in the abandoning of oil.
Here is a brief overview of experts' predictions for 2027:
Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
01.01.2027 | 1405.530 USD | 1455.119 USD | -1636.77 USD (-114.43%) |
01.02.2027 | 1427.773 USD | 1450.722 USD | +8.92 USD (0.62%) |
01.03.2027 | 1369.097 USD | 1425.717 USD | -41.84 USD (-2.99%) |
01.04.2027 | 1326.859 USD | 1404.314 USD | -31.82 USD (-2.33%) |
01.05.2027 | 1226.980 USD | 1306.764 USD | -98.71 USD (-7.79%) |
01.06.2027 | 1145.007 USD | 1227.626 USD | -80.56 USD (-6.79%) |
01.07.2027 | 1134.119 USD | 1172.819 USD | -32.85 USD (-2.85%) |
01.08.2027 | 1146.270 USD | 1167.334 USD | +3.33 USD (0.29%) |
01.09.2027 | 1089.524 USD | 1152.373 USD | -35.85 USD (-3.2%) |
01.10.2027 | 1097.299 USD | 1116.816 USD | -13.89 USD (-1.25%) |
01.11.2027 | 1095.450 USD | 1107.511 USD | -5.58 USD (-0.51%) |
01.12.2027 | 1102.085 USD | 1118.245 USD | +8.68 USD (0.78%) |
As the experts believe, the market should emerge from the surplus phase by 2028. Moreover, the main increase in consumption will be in green energy. First of all, wind turbines.
The forecast cost per tonne of zinc in 2028 is as follows:
Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
01.01.2028 | 1116.901 USD | 1167.626 USD | -1924.83 USD (-168.51%) |
01.02.2028 | 1136.804 USD | 1162.663 USD | +7.47 USD (0.65%) |
01.03.2028 | 1080.448 USD | 1135.265 USD | -41.88 USD (-3.78%) |
01.04.2028 | 1046.843 USD | 1115.283 USD | -26.79 USD (-2.48%) |
01.05.2028 | 939.120 USD | 1026.490 USD | -98.26 USD (-10%) |
01.06.2028 | 854.615 USD | 941.066 USD | -84.96 USD (-9.46%) |
01.07.2028 | 845.814 USD | 885.648 USD | -32.11 USD (-3.71%) |
01.08.2028 | 858.219 USD | 878.230 USD | +2.49 USD (0.29%) |
01.09.2028 | 800.905 USD | 866.425 USD | -34.56 USD (-4.15%) |
01.10.2028 | 808.909 USD | 829.413 USD | -14.5 USD (-1.77%) |
01.11.2028 | 807.783 USD | 820.204 USD | -5.17 USD (-0.63%) |
01.12.2028 | 819.635 USD | 830.459 USD | +11.05 USD (1.34%) |
The long-term zinc forecast is bullish. Experts are optimistic that the metal quotations will exceed the current ones by 2050. But the maximum forecasted level barely reaches $10 thousand per tonne. This makes it impossible to consider the asset promising for long-term investors.
Stocks of mining companies may be of separate interest. Most of the issuers work with several metals at once. Investments in them are a diversified bet on market growth, not on a single commodity.
Experts note that in the long term, high volatility is quite probable. Quotes can still demonstrate multiple ups similar to those of 2022. They will inevitably be followed by bearish phases. Therefore, zinc futures may turn out to be an interesting tool for experienced traders.
For the next 10 years, experts predict multidirectional fluctuations in quotations. In the first years, most analysts promise stagnation. The most optimistic forecasts are for a slight increase in prices. The situation is caused by oversupply and increased reserves in warehouses.
After 3-4 years, according to some data, the market may move to the deficit phase. This will lead to a gradual increase in cost. Inflation will be a bullish factor. Growing quotations of other non-ferrous metals will also provide support.
Experts believe that the cost will exceed the current one by the end of the next 10 years. But there is no talk about historical maximum renewal. According to analysts, zinc is not proper for long-term passive strategies.
Experts assure that international demand will start to grow after 2026. In 2022, it amounted to 13.5 million tonnes. As analysts believe, the world will need 21.7 million tonnes in 2030. Moreover, the accelerated increase in consumption of the metal is predicted for 2026-2030.
There are forecasts that the zinc market size will grow to $64bn by 2030.
As a result, by 2030 experts promise a bullish phase in the zinc market. Quotations will start to grow after a long-term sidewall. But it is unlikely that they will be able to surpass the current historical maximum. Analysts call the levels close to $3000-$3500 per tonne.
By 2040, experts predict the price of almost all non-ferrous metals to rise. This is due to a number of factors:
This will lead to further growth of quotations. An update of the historical price maximum is becoming possible. Experts warn that this asset will remain highly volatile in the future.
According to the International Zinc Association, the demand for this metal could exceed 28 million tonnes per year in 2050. The mining industry must increase capacity to meet this demand. An increase of 40%-70% relative to current levels is required.
The zinc price forecast 2050 is bullish. This metal, like all commodities, has its own value. Which means its quotations will inevitably grow as a result of inflation. They will also be affected by the inevitable rise in the cost of mining and smelting.
Over the past 20 years, the cost of a metric tonne has increased by about 2.5 times. Compared to the SP500 index, the asset looks unattractive in terms of investment.
It seems unlikely that zinc will show high rates of price appreciation in the next decades. The price levels called by experts by 2050. - x2 - x4 relative to the current ones.
Nevertheless, significant adjustments can be made to the long-term forecast:
Zinc is a brittle transition metal. Zinc is often used in the construction, metallurgical and chemical sectors. More than 50% of the zinc consumed in the world is used for galvanizing steel and iron. Another 10% goes to the manufacture of alloys, such as brass. Approximately the same amount covers the needs of medicine.
Zinc has no investment demand. The price/weight ratio of this metal is low. It is not profitable to store it in the form of ingots waiting for the growth of quotations. It involves too high costs.
A private investor can earn on this metal as follows:
Investments in zinc are a bet on global economic growth. This metal is also in demand in the green energy sector. When the latter develops, the demand for it will increase.
But zinc ores are readily available. Supply is usually reduced due to the closure of mines and smelters due to unprofitability. As soon as prices start to rise, production resumes. The market quickly finds equilibrium.
A historical maximum of quotations was recorded in the market. The reasons for this were a long-standing shortage of metal supply. But already in autumn, the cost per tonne began to fall.
During the economic crisis, quotations fell to the level of 2004. The cost per tonne approached $1000. In 2009, the market started to recover. In 12 months the price increased almost 2.5 times.
The cost per tonne almost came close to the historical maximum. But the quotations failed to break through this mark. Two factors led to the price hike. Firstly, a boom in the market of all non-ferrous metals. It was provoked by the geopolitical conflict. Secondly, there was a decrease in zinc output due to the high cost of electricity.
Quotes are mainly based on the supply-to-demand ratio. The cost per tonne rises when there is news about a reduction in metal output. For example, issues in the leading producing countries may lead to it.
A vivid example is 2022. Due to the cost of electricity, European production almost stopped. There was an acute shortage of zinc in Europe. Its local cost exceeded LME spot prices by $500 or more.
Zinc, like all commodities, is highly dependent on economic cycles. Quotes fall during periods of high interest rates, tight monetary policy of central banks. And this can happen regardless of the balance of supply and demand. A strong US dollar (USD) is also a bearish factor.
Production unit cost depends on expenses for coal, oil, electricity. A significant part is added by zinc ore mining costs. Additionally, contribution is made by production modernisation. It is necessary to fulfill the obligations to reduce carbon footprint.
Some metals are interchangeable in certain applications. For example, zinc is often used for injection molding along with aluminum and magnesium. When the value of the latter increases, the demand for zinc increases. This means that its quotations go up as well.
The price fell as a result of a supply surplus. It arose due to weak demand in 2023. Also, producers increased output compared to the failed year of 2022. The largest contribution to the increase in supply was made by Chinese mills. The market surplus is expected to exceed 360 thousand tonnes in 2024.
On 27.11.2023, a pound of zinc cost $1.15 on the London Metal Exchange. The cost per tonne under the futures contract was $2,532.25. A pound is equal to 453.59 g. To find out its price, one should first determine the value of 1 kg. The resulting figure should be multiplied by 0.45359.
According to historical data, the maximum cost per tonne is $4580. It has remained unchanged since November 2006. The reason was a supply shortage, which was observed for the third year in a row. The closest quotations came to this mark in 2022. At the peak they reached $4434 per tonne.
After last month's decline, experts promise a slight growth of quotations. Further on, a sideways exit is forecasted. The market will be in surplus in the coming years, most experts say. The high level of supply and inventory build-up do not contribute to price growth. But inflationary impact and increase in demand will not let the cost fall.
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