Nickel (NICKEL) Price Forecast & Long-term Prediction

Where will be Nickel Price in 5 years

In the next 5 years, nickel prices will move in different directions. In the near future, most analysts expect a further decline in nickel prices. Oxford Economics states that 2024 will turn out to be a bearish year for industrial metals. At the same time, the company's experts predict that as early as 2025, the cost per tonne of nickel will start to grow.

Some analysts have a different opinion. They believe that the bearish phase in the nickel market will last at least until the beginning of 2026:

1. excess metal production, which is unlikely to decrease in the coming years;
2. a slowdown in the Chinese economy;
3. negative macroeconomic factors, primarily high interest rates.

According to Statista platform, the global nickel market is forecast to exceed $59bn in 2028. It will rank as the 3rd largest industrial metal in terms of sales. In addition, it is one of the key metals for green energy.

This allows us to give bullish predictions for the final phase of the five-year plan. Expectations of interest rate cuts are an additional positive factor. The first steps in this direction are possible as early as 2024.

But it should be mentioned that recent optimistic forecasts have not come true. In April 2023, Fitch expected $27 thousand per tonne in 2023. Such optimism today looks excessive.

Some experts promise a growth up to $29 th. by 2028. But these predictions may also turn out to be wrong. According to BeatMarket analysts, in 2025-2026 the bearish trend may change to a bullish one. But it is unlikely that quotations will show significant growth relative to the current ones.

Today's nickel price does not look undervalued relative to average historical levels. BeatMarket experts see no reason to reach the $28-$30 thousand threshold in the next 5 years. Our forecast is for the value falling in the next few years. Further, we expect the market to recover.

Experts assume that the nickel market will remain in surplus in 2024. INSG expects demand to grow reaching 3.474 million tonnes. In addition, the production volume will also be higher. INSG estimates the metal supply in 2024 at 3.713 million tonnes.

This makes most of the tonne cost forecasts not optimistic:

1. BMI reports revision of target price downgraded to $20000/tonne ( previous forecast $20600);
2. Gov Capital as a moderate forecast calls the mark of about $16 th. per tonne;
3. Gov Capital's bearish scenario suggests falling to $13656;
4. ING Research predicts that the cost per tonne will reach $17 thousand by Q4 2024.

BeatMarket experts believe that nickel prices are unlikely to rise to $20 th. in the next 12 months. Our forecast is more moderate.

All predictions are for a continued supply surplus in 2025. It is widely argued that the low cost per tonne will slow down the pace of production. Yet, this will not lead to a rapid rebalancing between demand and metal output.

Short summary of nickel price predictions for 2025:

1. $16231-$16728 — by Wallet Investor;
2. $17000 — by Fitch Ratings;
3. $25537-$34550 — by Gov Capital.

BeatMarket experts share a pessimistic view on the near future of the nickel market. There are no grounds to believe in the return of quotes to the 2022 highs. The main bearish factor is the rapid increase in production of second-grade nickel. Recovery of demand from China and weakening of the dollar will not greatly support prices.

Experts differ in their predictions of nickel's prospects in 2026. There are opinions that demand will start to exceed supply in that time. But BMI does not expect this to happen earlier than 2028. In addition, quotations will be highly dependent on macroeconomic factors.

A brief overview of the experts' target prices for 2026:

1. $15000 — Fitch Ratings;
2. $16757-$17274 — Wallet Investor;
3. $26406 — knoema.com.

Forecasts differ due to different analysts' views on nickel consumption growth rates. The latter will strongly depend on two factors. These are the current situation in China and the speed of development of green energy.

BeatMarket analysts share a moderate point of view. We do not believe that the nickel price will go above $25 thousand per tonne in the coming years.

Our platform experts believe that 2027 could become a turning point for the market. This period is likely to see a shift from nickel surplus to balance or deficit. First of all, we are talking about high-grade metal.

This view is not supported by all Wall Street analysts. Some of them believe that quotations will remain in a sideways trend.

Here is a brief overview of experts' predictions for 2027:

1. up to $17827 — by Wallet Investor;
2. up to $27257 — by knoema.com;
3. up to $81507 — by Gov Capital.

Forecasts differ due to different analysts' views on nickel consumption growth rates. The latter will strongly depend on two factors. These are the current situation in China and the speed of development of green energy.

BeatMarket analysts share a moderate point of view. We do not believe that the nickel price will go above $25 thousand per tonne in the coming years.

Precedence Research platform predicts that in 2028 the nickel mining market will approach $68bn. Experts see the main growth drivers as the increase in demand for stainless steel. The key sectors are construction and industrial production.

Various sources offer the following tonne cost projections:

• gov.capital - over $75 thousand;
• Australian Resources And Investment - about $29 thousand;
• Wallet Investor - around $20k.

The significant difference in forecasts is due to the divergence of expectations regarding green energy development. Experts who promise maximum growth are confident in the rapid capture of the market by electric cars. They believe that the bulk of metal will be used for battery production. BeatMarket analysts do not share excessive optimism. We support moderate predictions.