Nickel (NICKEL) Price Forecast & Long-term Prediction

Nickel is one of the most highly important industrial metals for humans. There is no investment demand for it. But stock exchange speculators can influence the price by trading futures.

Nickel products are in demand in the space industry, military-industrial complex, medicine, etc. The stainless steel sector consumes about 65 per cent of the metal output. It uses class 2 nickel (like nickel cast iron). The price of such material is usually almost half that of high-grade material. Batteries for ev and mobile gadgets are the second main application area.

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3 years

London Metal Exchange (LME) is the main source of nickel price formation. It trades a 6-tonne delivery futures contract. It allows transactions only with the highest grade metal.

Throughout 2023, the quotations were declining. This was due to:

Only the supply of nickel pig iron is increasing. The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) believes that the surplus will continue until 2025-2027. Its report also states that reserves of the first-grade metal are declining.

Key Findings

A summary of the nickel price forecast is given below:

Price Today

$17435 per tonne

Price for next year 2024

$15706 per tonne

Long-term price 2025-2030

$16462 per tonne

Prices rise when the market expects supply disruptions or inventory cuts. The price of a metric ton falls when demand is weak.

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Nickel Price Forecast for Today

Minimum forecast cost

15433.51 USD

Maximum Forecast Value

17058.09 USD

% value change

2.65%

Nickel Price Technical Analysis

Some oscillators used for technical analysis are:

  1. RSI;
  2. Stochastic;
  3. MACD, etc.

Moving averages (MA) are a separate category. Based on the sum of these indicators, the decision on the deal is made.

On almost all timeframes, technical analysis tools suggest "sell" or "actively sell". Alternative recommendations are possible only on the minute and five-minute charts.

The reason is the long bearish phase and lack of fundamental grounds to break it. Only short-term growth is possible in quotations due to natural price swings. MA shows that the cost per tonne deviates insignificantly from average values. There are no significant corrections to be expected.

The candle patterns indicate that the bearish trend is continuing. The chart of quotations shows the following:

  1. Engulfing Bearish on the daily timeframe;
  2. Falling Three Methods on the 5H timeframe;
  3. Three Black Crows on timeframe 5H.

The first named pattern has medium reliability. The other two have high reliability.

The global downturn has lasted since the beginning of 2023. Throughout this period, the market has experienced a slight correction. Only unexpected and global news can turn in favor of the bulls.

Fundamental analysis

The table below contains the prices of the main metals. It also reflects the dynamics of quotations for a day, month, year. The tool allows you to see the performance of aluminum with iron, nickel, etc. compared to each other.

Price Day Month Year Date
Gold 2083 USD -0.063 -0.0030% +2.12% +12.26% 03.03.2024
Silver 23.14 USD -0.0015 -0.0067% +2.00% +8.75% 03.03.2024
Palladium 959.87 USD 0.00 0.00% +0.41% -33.56% 03.03.2024
Platinum 891.65 USD -0.33 -0.037% -1.46% -9.22% 03.03.2024
Copper 3.86 USD 0.00 0.00% +0.77% -5.16% 03.03.2024
Aluminum 2238.69 USD 0.00 0.00% +0.13% -6.92% 03.03.2024
Zinc 2407.81 USD 0.00 0.00% -1.59% -21.76% 03.03.2024
Nickel 17435 USD +450.00 +2.65% +5.44% -29.75% 29.02.2024

Where will be Nickel Price in 5 years

In the next 5 years, nickel prices will move in different directions. In the near future, most analysts expect a further decline in nickel prices. Oxford Economics states that 2024 will turn out to be a bearish year for industrial metals. At the same time, the company's experts predict that as early as 2025, the cost per tonne of nickel will start to grow.

Some analysts have a different opinion. They believe that the bearish phase in the nickel market will last at least until the beginning of 2026:

  1. excess metal production, which is unlikely to decrease in the coming years;
  2. a slowdown in the Chinese economy;
  3. negative macroeconomic factors, primarily high interest rates.

According to Statista platform, the global nickel market is forecast to exceed $59bn in 2028. It will rank as the 3rd largest industrial metal in terms of sales. In addition, it is one of the key metals for green energy.

This allows us to give bullish predictions for the final phase of the five-year plan. Expectations of interest rate cuts are an additional positive factor. The first steps in this direction are possible as early as 2024.

But it should be mentioned that recent optimistic forecasts have not come true. In April 2023, Fitch expected $27 thousand per tonne in 2023. Such optimism today looks excessive.

Some experts promise a growth up to $29 th. by 2028. But these predictions may also turn out to be wrong. According to BeatMarket analysts, in 2025-2026 the bearish trend may change to a bullish one. But it is unlikely that quotations will show significant growth relative to the current ones.

Today's nickel price does not look undervalued relative to average historical levels. BeatMarket experts see no reason to reach the $28-$30 thousand threshold in the next 5 years. Our forecast is for the value falling in the next few years. Further, we expect the market to recover.

Date Min forecast price Max forecast price Change
01.12.2024 15119.06 USD 15564.74 USD -2093.1 USD (-13.64%)
01.12.2025 15407.20 USD 15862.38 USD +292.89 USD (1.87%)
01.12.2026 15696.24 USD 16156.24 USD +291.45 USD (1.83%)
01.12.2027 15988.85 USD 16456.35 USD +296.36 USD (1.83%)
01.12.2028 16326.56 USD 16766.08 USD +323.72 USD (1.96%)
01.02.2029 17383.75 USD 17428.81 USD +859.96 USD (4.94%)

Nickel Price Forecast 2024

Experts assume that the nickel market will remain in surplus in 2024. INSG expects demand to grow reaching 3.474 million tonnes. In addition, the production volume will also be higher. INSG estimates the metal supply in 2024 at 3.713 million tonnes.

This makes most of the tonne cost forecasts not optimistic:

  1. BMI reports revision of target price downgraded to $20000/tonne ( previous forecast $20600);
  2. Gov Capital as a moderate forecast calls the mark of about $16 th. per tonne;
  3. Gov Capital's bearish scenario suggests falling to $13656;
  4. ING Research predicts that the cost per tonne will reach $17 thousand by Q4 2024.

BeatMarket experts believe that nickel prices are unlikely to rise to $20 th. in the next 12 months. Our forecast is more moderate.

Date Min forecast price Max forecast price Change
01.04.2024 15849.01 USD 16533.59 USD -1243.7 USD (-7.68%)
01.05.2024 15601.31 USD 16197.67 USD -291.81 USD (-1.84%)
01.06.2024 15310.61 USD 15650.91 USD -418.73 USD (-2.7%)
01.07.2024 15262.85 USD 15741.35 USD +21.34 USD (0.14%)
01.08.2024 15364.66 USD 15732.73 USD +46.59 USD (0.3%)
01.09.2024 15140.76 USD 15863.78 USD -46.42 USD (-0.3%)
01.10.2024 15068.08 USD 15302.51 USD -316.98 USD (-2.09%)
01.11.2024 15073.81 USD 15183.24 USD -56.77 USD (-0.38%)
01.12.2024 15119.06 USD 15564.74 USD +213.38 USD (1.39%)

Nickel Price Prediction 2025

All predictions are for a continued supply surplus in 2025. It is widely argued that the low cost per tonne will slow down the pace of production. Yet, this will not lead to a rapid rebalancing between demand and metal output.

Short summary of nickel price predictions for 2025:

  1. $16231-$16728 — by Wallet Investor;
  2. $17000 — by Fitch Ratings;
  3. $25537-$34550 — by Gov Capital.

BeatMarket experts share a pessimistic view on the near future of the nickel market. There are no grounds to believe in the return of quotes to the 2022 highs. The main bearish factor is the rapid increase in production of second-grade nickel. Recovery of demand from China and weakening of the dollar will not greatly support prices.

Date Min forecast price Max forecast price Change
01.01.2025 15335.90 USD 16200.45 USD -1666.83 USD (-10.57%)
01.02.2025 16111.88 USD 16999.97 USD +787.75 USD (4.76%)
01.03.2025 16246.97 USD 17624.99 USD +380.06 USD (2.24%)
01.04.2025 16146.74 USD 16841.93 USD -441.65 USD (-2.68%)
01.05.2025 15907.55 USD 16502.71 USD -289.21 USD (-1.78%)
01.06.2025 15622.93 USD 15964.49 USD -411.42 USD (-2.6%)
01.07.2025 15569.89 USD 16030.34 USD +6.41 USD (0.04%)
01.08.2025 15656.39 USD 16037.92 USD +47.04 USD (0.3%)
01.09.2025 15456.56 USD 16169.43 USD -34.16 USD (-0.22%)
01.10.2025 15378.02 USD 15606.79 USD -320.59 USD (-2.07%)
01.11.2025 15376.03 USD 15468.22 USD -70.28 USD (-0.46%)
01.12.2025 15407.20 USD 15862.38 USD +212.67 USD (1.36%)

Nickel Prediction 2026

Experts differ in their predictions of nickel's prospects in 2026. There are opinions that demand will start to exceed supply in that time. But BMI does not expect this to happen earlier than 2028. In addition, quotations will be highly dependent on macroeconomic factors.

A brief overview of the experts' target prices for 2026:

  1. $15000 — Fitch Ratings;
  2. $16757-$17274 — Wallet Investor;
  3. $26406 — knoema.com.

Forecasts differ due to different analysts' views on nickel consumption growth rates. The latter will strongly depend on two factors. These are the current situation in China and the speed of development of green energy.

BeatMarket analysts share a moderate point of view. We do not believe that the nickel price will go above $25 thousand per tonne in the coming years.

Date Min forecast price Max forecast price Change
01.01.2026 15635.78 USD 16477.47 USD -1378.38 USD (-8.58%)
01.02.2026 16414.03 USD 17186.22 USD +743.5 USD (4.43%)
01.03.2026 16567.55 USD 17921.69 USD +444.49 USD (2.58%)
01.04.2026 16461.36 USD 17137.18 USD -445.35 USD (-2.65%)
01.05.2026 16202.48 USD 16855.43 USD -270.31 USD (-1.64%)
01.06.2026 15935.52 USD 16277.27 USD -422.56 USD (-2.62%)
01.07.2026 15864.75 USD 16336.21 USD -5.92 USD (-0.04%)
01.08.2026 15956.23 USD 16335.98 USD +45.63 USD (0.28%)
01.09.2026 15724.55 USD 16465.32 USD -51.17 USD (-0.32%)
01.10.2026 15695.55 USD 15906.96 USD -293.68 USD (-1.86%)
01.11.2026 15679.62 USD 15783.82 USD -69.53 USD (-0.44%)
01.12.2026 15696.24 USD 16156.24 USD +194.52 USD (1.22%)

Nickel Price Forecast 2027

Our platform experts believe that 2027 could become a turning point for the market. This period is likely to see a shift from nickel surplus to balance or deficit. First of all, we are talking about high-grade metal.

This view is not supported by all Wall Street analysts. Some of them believe that quotations will remain in a sideways trend.

Here is a brief overview of experts' predictions for 2027:

  1. up to $17827 — by Wallet Investor;
  2. up to $27257 — by knoema.com;
  3. up to $81507 — by Gov Capital.

Forecasts differ due to different analysts' views on nickel consumption growth rates. The latter will strongly depend on two factors. These are the current situation in China and the speed of development of green energy.

BeatMarket analysts share a moderate point of view. We do not believe that the nickel price will go above $25 thousand per tonne in the coming years.

Date Min forecast price Max forecast price Change
01.01.2027 15943.18 USD 16745.42 USD -1090.7 USD (-6.67%)
01.02.2027 16723.21 USD 17373.84 USD +704.23 USD (4.13%)
01.03.2027 16840.69 USD 18212.82 USD +478.23 USD (2.73%)
01.04.2027 16793.43 USD 17432.44 USD -413.82 USD (-2.42%)
01.05.2027 16499.72 USD 17062.78 USD -331.68 USD (-1.98%)
01.06.2027 16208.52 USD 16587.01 USD -383.49 USD (-2.34%)
01.07.2027 16163.21 USD 16627.78 USD -2.27 USD (-0.01%)
01.08.2027 16264.03 USD 16648.80 USD +60.92 USD (0.37%)
01.09.2027 16021.25 USD 16760.63 USD -65.47 USD (-0.4%)
01.10.2027 15984.42 USD 16202.90 USD -297.28 USD (-1.85%)
01.11.2027 15983.99 USD 16100.87 USD -51.23 USD (-0.32%)
01.12.2027 15988.85 USD 16456.35 USD +180.17 USD (1.11%)

Nickel Price Prediction 2028

Precedence Research platform predicts that in 2028 the nickel mining market will approach $68bn. Experts see the main growth drivers as the increase in demand for stainless steel. The key sectors are construction and industrial production.

Various sources offer the following tonne cost projections:

The significant difference in forecasts is due to the divergence of expectations regarding green energy development. Experts who promise maximum growth are confident in the rapid capture of the market by electric cars. They believe that the bulk of metal will be used for battery production. BeatMarket analysts do not share excessive optimism. We support moderate predictions.

Date Min forecast price Max forecast price Change
01.01.2028 16257.01 USD 17095.01 USD -758.99 USD (-4.55%)
01.02.2028 17037.24 USD 17940.54 USD +812.88 USD (4.65%)
01.03.2028 17140.72 USD 18517.75 USD +340.35 USD (1.91%)
01.04.2028 17081.49 USD 17732.93 USD -422.03 USD (-2.42%)
01.05.2028 16800.42 USD 17434.64 USD -289.68 USD (-1.69%)
01.06.2028 16501.77 USD 16864.78 USD -434.25 USD (-2.6%)
01.07.2028 16464.87 USD 16944.96 USD +21.64 USD (0.13%)
01.08.2028 16579.33 USD 16955.36 USD +62.43 USD (0.37%)
01.09.2028 16354.66 USD 17060.39 USD -59.82 USD (-0.36%)
01.10.2028 16277.14 USD 16499.67 USD -319.12 USD (-1.95%)
01.11.2028 16284.79 USD 16368.27 USD -61.87 USD (-0.38%)
01.12.2028 16326.56 USD 16766.08 USD +219.79 USD (1.33%)

What is the future prospect for Nickel? Long-Term Forecast 2030 to 2050

As for most commodities, the long-term nickel price outlook is bullish. Specialists expect a significant increase in demand. It will grow fourfold over the next 30 years.

First of all, this concerns the metal of high purity. Such a surge in nickel consumption will become real due to green energy development. It is expected that 9 out of 10 cars sold will be electric vehicles by as early as 2040.

The latest nickel data promise no corresponding increase in supplies of high purity nickel. At current prices, the majority of producers are within the margins. But this is not enough to increase nickel output.

Goldman Sachs calls the threshold of $34 thousand per tonne. This is the minimum nickel price that will allow to avoid shortages. At lower values, there is no reason to increase production.

Nickel Projections For Next 10 Years

The ten-year nickel price projections are ambiguous. Quotations are expected to fall in the next 2-3 years. This is due to a sharp increase in output in Asia, mainly in Indonesia.

As a result, there is a surplus of second-grade nickel in the market. The equilibrium will be reached at the earliest in 2025. After that, the quotations may start to grow.

Other supporting factors:

  • electric vehicle market development;
  • recovery of the global economy after the recession;
  • end of the rate hike cycle.

However, even the most optimistic experts expect no repetition of the historic high.

Nickel Price Prediction 2030

As early as 2030, analysts believe that nickel demand will grow by 40-45% relative to the current demand. This will have a bullish effect on the nickel market. But the final price by the end of the decade depends on several factors.

The pressure on quotations may be exerted by:

  1. Excess nickel pig iron.
  2. Continued high interest rates.
  3. Slowdown in the development of green energy.

There are experts expecting a nickel deficit. For example, these are analysts at Crux Investor. They forecast a sharp increase in demand. And they claim that the mining industry will not be able to compensate for it. That is due to the lack of significant projects for the development of new deposits.

Experts predict that the cost of a tonne of nickel will rise to $25 thousand. However, in the early 2023, experts also gave optimistic price forecasts. Now it is clear that the real quotations at the end of the year turned out to be lower.

Nickel Forecast 2040

Demand for nickel will increase several times by the year 2040. This is considered a bullish factor for the market. Quotes will also be supported by an increase in the cost of metal production. Such growth is inevitable against the backdrop of inflation.

Many analysts are certain that as early as by 2040 quotations will overcome the threshold of $34 thousand per metric tonne.

But it should be understood that the bullish forecast is given for all non-ferrous metals. The question of whether nickel prices will increase by 2040 is actually irrelevant. The main task is to determine whether the value of this asset will increase more than others.

Nickel Future Price 2050

Nickel price forecast for 2050 is optimistic. Some analysts believe that it is possible to exceed the 2007 level.

However, there are factors that may prevent quotations from fixing above $50 thousand:

  • changes in the structure of industrial demand associated with new technological developments;
  • unfavorable economic situation in key countries;
  • slower than expected growth in ev demand.

Over the last 27 years, the quotations of this metal have increased approximately twofold. There are reasons to believe that in the future the price dynamics will be maintained or slightly accelerated.

Such performance makes nickel projects not the most attractive asset for long-term investments. For example, some gold price forecasts promise a multiple increase in quotations by 2050.

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About Nickel Production

The leading countries in production of nickel are Indonesia, the Philippines and Russia. The main consumers are China, the USA, and the European Union. From the point of view of natural reserves, Indonesia holds the first place.

In terms of individual companies, the top ten largest including nickel producers:

  1. MMC Norilsk Nickel (Russia);
  2. Vale S.A. (Brazil);
  3. Glencore plc (Switzerland);
  4. Materion (USA);
  5. Anglo American plc (UK).

The stocks of the above issuers may be proper bets on nickel price appreciation.

Global nickel production in 2022 exceeded 3.3 million metric tons. The increase compared to 2021 was 21%. Indonesian producers increased their capacity by more than 50%. The expected surplus in the market in 2024 is 190 thousand tonnes.

Nickel Price History Chart

Key dates

Year 2007

In April, the cost per tonne was $51.8 thousand. The main bullish factor was the shortage of nickel stocks. But almost immediately the quotations started a rapid decline.

Year 2016

In May, the LME nickel price fell to $8100 per tonne. This figure is below the 1996 levels. At present, this is the lowest price recorded in the 21st century. The key reason for the slump is a decline in demand, primarily from China.

Year 2022

Quotes reached a historic high. The cost per tonne exceeded $100 thousand on March 8. The reason was fears of supply cuts. They led to a sharp rise in price, which provoked a short-squeeze. Still, this price lasted only a few minutes. Trading on the LME was suspended. The deals made were canceled. Since then, the global nickel market has been in a global bearish price trend with minor corrections.

What Influences Nickel Price

Economic situation

Nickel is not an investment asset, but a commodity. The demand for it depends entirely on the macroeconomic factors. In times of rapid development and cheap lending, the demand is naturally higher. Rising interest rates lead to its reduction. The situation in a particular country, China, plays an important role. This is the main nickel importer.

The higher the demand for commodities, the higher their price. Market expectations regarding the next few years also have an impact.

Technological development

Nickel's uses are changing. For some time, it was used to make coins. Now the bulk of it is used for stainless steel production. But the rate of increase in the production of electric vehicles is already called one of the key factors influencing quotations. Nickel-hydrogen batteries continue to rise in popularity.

As technological development continues, new applications for the metal are likely to emerge. This will lead to an increase in demand for it. At the same time, the opposite event, which will make nickel unnecessary, remains possible. For example, the invention of fundamentally new power sources for evs.

Supply and demand balance

Global nickel supply is changing, as is its supply. The main reason for the decline in production is falling quotations to the cost level and below.

Primary nickel production requires ore and an energy source such as natural gas. It also requires expensive equipment, etc. When the cost per tonne increases but the price does not, producers stop unprofitable operations. Supply falls, inventories are gradually reduced.

When demand persists, the commodity price rises as a result of scarcity. As a consequence, production becomes profitable, mines and factories start up again.

Cobalt price

The state of the cobalt market in part affects the price of other metals. For example, a by-product of its production is nickel sulfate. The salt is used for batteries. The opposite situation is also possible - cobalt is obtained during the production of nickel.

Nickel and cobalt are battery metals that can partially replace each other. Accordingly, when the second one becomes more expensive, the demand for the cheaper analogue grows.

Political issues

Political events can also have an impact on prices of nickel. For example, in 2022, fears of a ban on supplies from Russia became a trigger for quotations.

Potential problems in the global supply chain also lead to price growth. They may be related to local conflicts, wars, etc.

Is Nickel A Good Investment?

Short-term

(1-6 month)

The nickel price chart is expected to go downwards in the near future. This is due to the continuing supply surplus. The pressure is exerted by the current interest rates and vague prospects for their reduction.

Medium-term

(6-12 month)

In the next 6-12 months, analysts give a negative outlook for nickel. The reasons are the persistent surplus of the metal and the slow recovery of the Chinese economy.

Long-term

(1 year+)

It is not recommended to invest in nickel on long time horizons. It cannot be considered a promising asset. Optimistic analysts expect quotations to go sideways. The pessimistic forecast is that long-term nickel prices will be at the level of $10 thousand and below.

FAQ

What will nickel price be in 2024?

The average cost per tonne in 2024 will be $18 thousand, according to Fitch Ratings. This is an adjusted price forecast. In the third quarter, the expected quotation level was $19 thousand. This is due to the fact that the nickel market surplus in 2023 amounted to 250 thousand tonnes of nickel. This is a quarter more than planned.

Why is nickel price dropping?

Supply surplus is the main reason for the quotations decrease in 2023. It was triggered by two factors. First, the growth of nickel production from Indonesia and other countries. Second, the demand reduction on the part of Chinese stainless steel producers. Speculative price growth in 2022 also had an impact. Quotations returned to normal after extreme values.

Who buys the most nickel?

China’s the main importer in the world. In 2023, it maintained its leading position compared to other countries. This was despite a decline in demand from its industry. China primarily purchases second-grade metal. Refined nickel is hardly used at all.

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