Nickel is one of the most highly important industrial metals for humans. There is no investment demand for it. But stock exchange speculators can influence the price by trading futures.
Nickel products are in demand in the space industry, military-industrial complex, medicine, etc. The stainless steel sector consumes about 65 per cent of the metal output. It uses class 2 nickel (like nickel cast iron). The price of such material is usually almost half that of high-grade material. Batteries for ev and mobile gadgets are the second main application area.
London Metal Exchange (LME) is the main source of nickel price formation. It trades a 6-tonne delivery futures contract. It allows transactions only with the highest grade metal.
Throughout 2023, the quotations were declining. This was due to:
Only the supply of nickel pig iron is increasing. The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) believes that the surplus will continue until 2025-2027. Its report also states that reserves of the first-grade metal are declining.
A summary of the nickel price forecast is given below:
Prices rise when the market expects supply disruptions or inventory cuts. The price of a metric ton falls when demand is weak.
Some oscillators used for technical analysis are:
Moving averages (MA) are a separate category. Based on the sum of these indicators, the decision on the deal is made.
On almost all timeframes, technical analysis tools suggest "sell" or "actively sell". Alternative recommendations are possible only on the minute and five-minute charts.
The reason is the long bearish phase and lack of fundamental grounds to break it. Only short-term growth is possible in quotations due to natural price swings. MA shows that the cost per tonne deviates insignificantly from average values. There are no significant corrections to be expected.
The candle patterns indicate that the bearish trend is continuing. The chart of quotations shows the following:
The first named pattern has medium reliability. The other two have high reliability.
The global downturn has lasted since the beginning of 2023. Throughout this period, the market has experienced a slight correction. Only unexpected and global news can turn in favor of the bulls.
The table below contains the prices of the main metals. It also reflects the dynamics of quotations for a day, month, year. The tool allows you to see the performance of aluminum with iron, nickel, etc. compared to each other.
| Price | Day | Month | Year | Date | ||
| Gold | 2658.28 USD | +21.60 | +0.82% | -2.41% | +33.62% | 21.11.2024 |
| Silver | 31.17 USD | -0.012 | -0.040% | -7.55% | +31.19% | 21.11.2024 |
| Palladium | 1030.84 USD | -4.94 | -0.48% | -5.16% | -4.86% | 21.11.2024 |
| Platinum | 968.8 USD | -8.43 | -0.86% | -5.05% | +4.88% | 21.11.2024 |
| Copper | 4.15 USD | -0.028 | -0.68% | -5.34% | +8.05% | 21.11.2024 |
| Aluminum | 2639.5 USD | -36.33 | -1.36% | +1.04% | +17.39% | 21.11.2024 |
| Zinc | 2976.46 USD | +17.03 | +0.58% | -3.43% | +15.98% | 21.11.2024 |
| Nickel | 15290 USD | -340.00 | -2.18% | -8.06% | -8.09% | 20.11.2024 |
In the next 5 years, nickel prices will move in different directions. In the near future, most analysts expect a further decline in nickel prices. Oxford Economics states that 2024 will turn out to be a bearish year for industrial metals. At the same time, the company's experts predict that as early as 2025, the cost per tonne of nickel will start to grow.
Some analysts have a different opinion. They believe that the bearish phase in the nickel market will last at least until the beginning of 2026:
According to Statista platform, the global nickel market is forecast to exceed $59bn in 2028. It will rank as the 3rd largest industrial metal in terms of sales. In addition, it is one of the key metals for green energy.
This allows us to give bullish predictions for the final phase of the five-year plan. Expectations of interest rate cuts are an additional positive factor. The first steps in this direction are possible as early as 2024.
But it should be mentioned that recent optimistic forecasts have not come true. In April 2023, Fitch expected $27 thousand per tonne in 2023. Such optimism today looks excessive.
Some experts promise a growth up to $29 th. by 2028. But these predictions may also turn out to be wrong. According to BeatMarket analysts, in 2025-2026 the bearish trend may change to a bullish one. But it is unlikely that quotations will show significant growth relative to the current ones.
Today's nickel price does not look undervalued relative to average historical levels. BeatMarket experts see no reason to reach the $28-$30 thousand threshold in the next 5 years. Our forecast is for the value falling in the next few years. Further, we expect the market to recover.
| Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
| 01.12.2025 | 15927.29 USD | 16373.87 USD | +860.58 USD (5.33%) |
| 01.12.2026 | 16115.58 USD | 16571.95 USD | +193.18 USD (1.18%) |
| 01.12.2027 | 16307.59 USD | 16764.59 USD | +192.33 USD (1.16%) |
| 01.12.2028 | 16551.30 USD | 16966.35 USD | +222.73 USD (1.33%) |
| 01.02.2029 | 17316.19 USD | 17468.21 USD | +633.38 USD (3.64%) |
All predictions are for a continued supply surplus in 2025. It is widely argued that the low cost per tonne will slow down the pace of production. Yet, this will not lead to a rapid rebalancing between demand and metal output.
Short summary of nickel price predictions for 2025:
BeatMarket experts share a pessimistic view on the near future of the nickel market. There are no grounds to believe in the return of quotes to the 2022 highs. The main bearish factor is the rapid increase in production of second-grade nickel. Recovery of demand from China and weakening of the dollar will not greatly support prices.
| Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
| 01.01.2025 | 15969.39 USD | 16675.36 USD | +1032.38 USD (6.32%) |
| 01.02.2025 | 16470.88 USD | 17595.41 USD | +710.77 USD (4.17%) |
| 01.03.2025 | 16816.38 USD | 18255.81 USD | +502.95 USD (2.87%) |
| 01.04.2025 | 16726.72 USD | 17417.33 USD | -464.07 USD (-2.72%) |
| 01.05.2025 | 16481.01 USD | 17059.40 USD | -301.82 USD (-1.8%) |
| 01.06.2025 | 16178.13 USD | 16520.06 USD | -421.11 USD (-2.58%) |
| 01.07.2025 | 16100.01 USD | 16588.44 USD | -4.87 USD (-0.03%) |
| 01.08.2025 | 16202.76 USD | 16588.98 USD | +51.65 USD (0.31%) |
| 01.09.2025 | 16009.55 USD | 16706.95 USD | -37.62 USD (-0.23%) |
| 01.10.2025 | 15929.79 USD | 16132.88 USD | -326.92 USD (-2.04%) |
| 01.11.2025 | 15888.39 USD | 16018.26 USD | -78.01 USD (-0.49%) |
| 01.12.2025 | 15927.29 USD | 16373.87 USD | +197.26 USD (1.22%) |
Experts differ in their predictions of nickel's prospects in 2026. There are opinions that demand will start to exceed supply in that time. But BMI does not expect this to happen earlier than 2028. In addition, quotations will be highly dependent on macroeconomic factors.
A brief overview of the experts' target prices for 2026:
Forecasts differ due to different analysts' views on nickel consumption growth rates. The latter will strongly depend on two factors. These are the current situation in China and the speed of development of green energy.
BeatMarket analysts share a moderate point of view. We do not believe that the nickel price will go above $25 thousand per tonne in the coming years.
| Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
| 01.01.2026 | 16167.09 USD | 16877.70 USD | +1232.4 USD (7.46%) |
| 01.02.2026 | 16670.26 USD | 17664.79 USD | +645.13 USD (3.76%) |
| 01.03.2026 | 17036.88 USD | 18459.10 USD | +580.46 USD (3.27%) |
| 01.04.2026 | 16936.31 USD | 17617.83 USD | -470.92 USD (-2.73%) |
| 01.05.2026 | 16679.96 USD | 17313.46 USD | -280.36 USD (-1.65%) |
| 01.06.2026 | 16392.66 USD | 16733.83 USD | -433.46 USD (-2.62%) |
| 01.07.2026 | 16298.03 USD | 16790.12 USD | -19.17 USD (-0.12%) |
| 01.08.2026 | 16402.22 USD | 16785.74 USD | +49.91 USD (0.3%) |
| 01.09.2026 | 16166.97 USD | 16906.39 USD | -57.3 USD (-0.35%) |
| 01.10.2026 | 16137.41 USD | 16333.90 USD | -301.03 USD (-1.85%) |
| 01.11.2026 | 16091.37 USD | 16231.19 USD | -74.37 USD (-0.46%) |
| 01.12.2026 | 16115.58 USD | 16571.95 USD | +182.48 USD (1.12%) |
Our platform experts believe that 2027 could become a turning point for the market. This period is likely to see a shift from nickel surplus to balance or deficit. First of all, we are talking about high-grade metal.
This view is not supported by all Wall Street analysts. Some of them believe that quotations will remain in a sideways trend.
Here is a brief overview of experts' predictions for 2027:
Forecasts differ due to different analysts' views on nickel consumption growth rates. The latter will strongly depend on two factors. These are the current situation in China and the speed of development of green energy.
BeatMarket analysts share a moderate point of view. We do not believe that the nickel price will go above $25 thousand per tonne in the coming years.
| Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
| 01.01.2027 | 16366.72 USD | 17071.12 USD | +1428.92 USD (8.55%) |
| 01.02.2027 | 16877.38 USD | 17733.34 USD | +586.44 USD (3.39%) |
| 01.03.2027 | 17198.79 USD | 18640.15 USD | +614.11 USD (3.43%) |
| 01.04.2027 | 17163.46 USD | 17805.54 USD | -434.97 USD (-2.49%) |
| 01.05.2027 | 16879.87 USD | 17424.61 USD | -332.26 USD (-1.94%) |
| 01.06.2027 | 16547.93 USD | 16945.18 USD | -405.68 USD (-2.42%) |
| 01.07.2027 | 16497.34 USD | 16984.25 USD | -5.76 USD (-0.03%) |
| 01.08.2027 | 16608.18 USD | 16999.99 USD | +63.29 USD (0.38%) |
| 01.09.2027 | 16371.70 USD | 17096.69 USD | -69.89 USD (-0.42%) |
| 01.10.2027 | 16331.20 USD | 16531.38 USD | -302.9 USD (-1.84%) |
| 01.11.2027 | 16296.06 USD | 16445.87 USD | -60.33 USD (-0.37%) |
| 01.12.2027 | 16307.59 USD | 16764.59 USD | +165.13 USD (1%) |
Precedence Research platform predicts that in 2028 the nickel mining market will approach $68bn. Experts see the main growth drivers as the increase in demand for stainless steel. The key sectors are construction and industrial production.
Various sources offer the following tonne cost projections:
The significant difference in forecasts is due to the divergence of expectations regarding green energy development. Experts who promise maximum growth are confident in the rapid capture of the market by electric cars. They believe that the bulk of metal will be used for battery production. BeatMarket analysts do not share excessive optimism. We support moderate predictions.
| Date | Min forecast price | Max forecast price | Change |
| 01.01.2028 | 16572.80 USD | 17288.03 USD | +1640.42 USD (9.69%) |
| 01.02.2028 | 17093.46 USD | 18242.85 USD | +737.74 USD (4.18%) |
| 01.03.2028 | 17408.41 USD | 18852.01 USD | +462.06 USD (2.55%) |
| 01.04.2028 | 17364.70 USD | 18010.73 USD | -442.49 USD (-2.5%) |
| 01.05.2028 | 17082.68 USD | 17695.73 USD | -298.51 USD (-1.72%) |
| 01.06.2028 | 16750.24 USD | 17120.16 USD | -454.01 USD (-2.68%) |
| 01.07.2028 | 16700.05 USD | 17200.74 USD | +15.19 USD (0.09%) |
| 01.08.2028 | 16821.77 USD | 17209.62 USD | +65.3 USD (0.38%) |
| 01.09.2028 | 16603.62 USD | 17299.29 USD | -64.24 USD (-0.38%) |
| 01.10.2028 | 16529.77 USD | 16728.29 USD | -322.43 USD (-1.94%) |
| 01.11.2028 | 16501.95 USD | 16617.42 USD | -69.35 USD (-0.42%) |
| 01.12.2028 | 16551.30 USD | 16966.35 USD | +199.14 USD (1.19%) |
As for most commodities, the long-term nickel price outlook is bullish. Specialists expect a significant increase in demand. It will grow fourfold over the next 30 years.
First of all, this concerns the metal of high purity. Such a surge in nickel consumption will become real due to green energy development. It is expected that 9 out of 10 cars sold will be electric vehicles by as early as 2040.
The latest nickel data promise no corresponding increase in supplies of high purity nickel. At current prices, the majority of producers are within the margins. But this is not enough to increase nickel output.
Goldman Sachs calls the threshold of $34 thousand per tonne. This is the minimum nickel price that will allow to avoid shortages. At lower values, there is no reason to increase production.
The ten-year nickel price projections are ambiguous. Quotations are expected to fall in the next 2-3 years. This is due to a sharp increase in output in Asia, mainly in Indonesia.
As a result, there is a surplus of second-grade nickel in the market. The equilibrium will be reached at the earliest in 2025. After that, the quotations may start to grow.
Other supporting factors:
However, even the most optimistic experts expect no repetition of the historic high.
As early as 2030, analysts believe that nickel demand will grow by 40-45% relative to the current demand. This will have a bullish effect on the nickel market. But the final price by the end of the decade depends on several factors.
The pressure on quotations may be exerted by:
There are experts expecting a nickel deficit. For example, these are analysts at Crux Investor. They forecast a sharp increase in demand. And they claim that the mining industry will not be able to compensate for it. That is due to the lack of significant projects for the development of new deposits.
Experts predict that the cost of a tonne of nickel will rise to $25 thousand. However, in the early 2023, experts also gave optimistic price forecasts. Now it is clear that the real quotations at the end of the year turned out to be lower.
Demand for nickel will increase several times by the year 2040. This is considered a bullish factor for the market. Quotes will also be supported by an increase in the cost of metal production. Such growth is inevitable against the backdrop of inflation.
Many analysts are certain that as early as by 2040 quotations will overcome the threshold of $34 thousand per metric tonne.
But it should be understood that the bullish forecast is given for all non-ferrous metals. The question of whether nickel prices will increase by 2040 is actually irrelevant. The main task is to determine whether the value of this asset will increase more than others.
Nickel price forecast for 2050 is optimistic. Some analysts believe that it is possible to exceed the 2007 level.
However, there are factors that may prevent quotations from fixing above $50 thousand:
Over the last 27 years, the quotations of this metal have increased approximately twofold. There are reasons to believe that in the future the price dynamics will be maintained or slightly accelerated.
Such performance makes nickel projects not the most attractive asset for long-term investments. For example, some gold price forecasts promise a multiple increase in quotations by 2050.
The leading countries in production of nickel are Indonesia, the Philippines and Russia. The main consumers are China, the USA, and the European Union. From the point of view of natural reserves, Indonesia holds the first place.
In terms of individual companies, the top ten largest including nickel producers:
The stocks of the above issuers may be proper bets on nickel price appreciation.
Global nickel production in 2022 exceeded 3.3 million metric tons. The increase compared to 2021 was 21%. Indonesian producers increased their capacity by more than 50%. The expected surplus in the market in 2024 is 190 thousand tonnes.
In April, the cost per tonne was $51.8 thousand. The main bullish factor was the shortage of nickel stocks. But almost immediately the quotations started a rapid decline.
In May, the LME nickel price fell to $8100 per tonne. This figure is below the 1996 levels. At present, this is the lowest price recorded in the 21st century. The key reason for the slump is a decline in demand, primarily from China.
Quotes reached a historic high. The cost per tonne exceeded $100 thousand on March 8. The reason was fears of supply cuts. They led to a sharp rise in price, which provoked a short-squeeze. Still, this price lasted only a few minutes. Trading on the LME was suspended. The deals made were canceled. Since then, the global nickel market has been in a global bearish price trend with minor corrections.
Nickel is not an investment asset, but a commodity. The demand for it depends entirely on the macroeconomic factors. In times of rapid development and cheap lending, the demand is naturally higher. Rising interest rates lead to its reduction. The situation in a particular country, China, plays an important role. This is the main nickel importer.
The higher the demand for commodities, the higher their price. Market expectations regarding the next few years also have an impact.
Nickel's uses are changing. For some time, it was used to make coins. Now the bulk of it is used for stainless steel production. But the rate of increase in the production of electric vehicles is already called one of the key factors influencing quotations. Nickel-hydrogen batteries continue to rise in popularity.
As technological development continues, new applications for the metal are likely to emerge. This will lead to an increase in demand for it. At the same time, the opposite event, which will make nickel unnecessary, remains possible. For example, the invention of fundamentally new power sources for evs.
Global nickel supply is changing, as is its supply. The main reason for the decline in production is falling quotations to the cost level and below.
Primary nickel production requires ore and an energy source such as natural gas. It also requires expensive equipment, etc. When the cost per tonne increases but the price does not, producers stop unprofitable operations. Supply falls, inventories are gradually reduced.
When demand persists, the commodity price rises as a result of scarcity. As a consequence, production becomes profitable, mines and factories start up again.
The state of the cobalt market in part affects the price of other metals. For example, a by-product of its production is nickel sulfate. The salt is used for batteries. The opposite situation is also possible - cobalt is obtained during the production of nickel.
Nickel and cobalt are battery metals that can partially replace each other. Accordingly, when the second one becomes more expensive, the demand for the cheaper analogue grows.
Political events can also have an impact on prices of nickel. For example, in 2022, fears of a ban on supplies from Russia became a trigger for quotations.
Potential problems in the global supply chain also lead to price growth. They may be related to local conflicts, wars, etc.
Technical indicators show that growth of nickel quotations is possible. In the coming days and weeks, it should be expected to be a bull market. It can be supported by fundamental factors.
Experts forecast a recovery in nickel quotations over the 6-12 months horizon. The metal price is close to support levels, from which it can push upwards. A positive factor will be the market's belief in a rapid increase in demand.
In the long-term, nickel is considered a proper investment asset. The price is expected to be above $20 thousand per tonne in the coming years. The main reason for the optimistic forecasts is confidence in increased demand.
The average cost per tonne in 2024 will be $18 thousand, according to Fitch Ratings. This is an adjusted price forecast. In the third quarter, the expected quotation level was $19 thousand. This is due to the fact that the nickel market surplus in 2023 amounted to 250 thousand tonnes of nickel. This is a quarter more than planned.
Supply surplus is the main reason for the quotations decrease in 2023. It was triggered by two factors. First, the growth of nickel production from Indonesia and other countries. Second, the demand reduction on the part of Chinese stainless steel producers. Speculative price growth in 2022 also had an impact. Quotations returned to normal after extreme values.
China’s the main importer in the world. In 2023, it maintained its leading position compared to other countries. This was despite a decline in demand from its industry. China primarily purchases second-grade metal. Refined nickel is hardly used at all.
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